[GTCfx]What to Expect in the Week Ahead? 20th October - 24 October
It’s shaping up to be a busy week for global markets. China’s growth is slowing, but its factories are still churning. Across the Atlantic, all eyes are on inflation reports from the UK and the U.S., while ECB President Lagarde’s speech could give clues on Europe’s monetary path. And let’s not forget the housing market in the U.S., a small dip or a bounce could tell us a lot about where consumers stand.
Monday, October 20
Chinese GDP and Industrial Production
China’s economy shows a mixed picture as Q3 GDP growth slowed to +4.8% y/y, down from +5.2% in Q2, while industrial production accelerated to +6.5% y/y in September from +5.2% in August.
- • GDP: The slowdown highlights weaker domestic demand, with investment and property sectors continuing to drag.
- • Industrial Production: The stronger-than-expected print underscores resilience in manufacturing, suggesting that exports and industrial activity are helping support the economy despite domestic headwinds.
Tuesday, October 21
ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Christine Lagarde takes the stage, and based on her recent remarks, we can expect her to touch on a few key themes:
- • Trade tensions and tariffs may be discussed, particularly their impact on exporters and potential implications for consumer prices.
- • She could reaffirm the ECB’s current policy stance, noting that inflation is near the 2% target and the likelihood of further rate cuts may be limited.
- • Lagarde may emphasize the importance of central bank independence amid divergent global monetary policies.
- • Financial market stability may also be a theme, with reassurances on eurozone bond markets amid recent French budgetary concerns.
Wednesday, October 22
UK CPI
The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise to 4.0% y/y, up from 3.8% in August, marking the highest level since January 2024.
- • Higher motor fuel and airfare costs are expected to drive the increase.
- • Services inflation remains a key area for the Bank of England, reflecting domestic price pressures.
- • The outcome will be crucial as the BoE monitors inflation trends in relation to its 2% target and future interest rate decisions.
A 4% reading would reinforce inflationary pressures, potentially complicating plans for future rate cuts.
Thursday, October 23
US Existing Home Sales
Economists anticipate a slight increase in existing-home sales, a key gauge of the U.S. housing market.
- • Stronger sales would suggest that easing mortgage rates and improving inventory are beginning to support activity.
- • Sluggish sales would indicate continued affordability pressures and a housing market still constrained by higher borrowing costs.
The housing market remains a barometer for broader consumer activity and economic health.
Friday, October 24
US CPI and Manufacturing PMI
The U.S. CPI and Manufacturing PMI releases, postponed due to the government shutdown, are back on the calendar.
- • CPI: Economists expect a modest rise in year-over-year inflation, reflecting continued moderate price increases.
- • Manufacturing PMI: Will provide insight into production activity and business sentiment ahead of the Fed’s next policy meeting.
These reports will be closely watched for indications of inflation momentum and manufacturing strength, influencing expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
Major U.S. Earnings This Week
- • Netflix (NFLX) (Tuesday After Market Close)
- • Coca-Cola (KO) (Tuesday Before Market Open)
- • Tesla (TSLA) (Wednesday After Market Close)
- • Intel (INTC) (Thursday After Market Close)
Disclaimer
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