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Core durable goods orders are forecast to rise by about 0.3% month-on-month. This measure is an important indicator of business investment and future production trends. A stronger-than-expected reading could signal resilient investment demand and boost market sentiment, while a weaker print may reinforce concerns about softer manufacturing activity under tighter financial conditions.

Consumer confidence is expected to be around 90.1, slightly up from December’s 89.1 but still historically subdued. Confidence readings often correlate with consumer spending, which drives roughly two-thirds of US GDP. A stronger-than-expected result would suggest households are more willing to spend, supporting growth expectations, whereas a weaker print could reinforce concerns about demand and increase expectations for policy support.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. While the rate itself may not move, markets will focus closely on the Fed’s statement and Chair Powell’s press conference for clues about the future policy path. Recent inflation readings remain above the 2% target, and the unemployment rate has ticked down to 4.4%, making Powell’s commentary particularly important. His remarks could signal either a hawkish hold or a more cautious stance.

Weekly jobless claims are expected to remain near 200,000, indicating the labor market is holding up. Any unexpected rise could hint at weakening conditions. Meanwhile, US factory orders are forecast to increase by 0.5% after falling the previous month. Higher orders would suggest steady demand and support growth expectations.

Tokyo’s core CPI is expected to rise about 2.2% year-on-year, slightly below December’s 2.3%. This measure, which excludes fresh food, gives a clearer view of underlying inflation trends. A reading above expectations would suggest persistent inflation, potentially prompting the Bank of Japan to consider action, while a softer print would ease concerns and reduce the likelihood of immediate policy tightening.

The pair dropped sharply after testing the highs from April 2024 and January 2025, confirming that bears are active above the $158 level.

The stock is facing heavy selling pressure since the end of Q3 2025 but appears to have found support near the 600 level, which aligns with the upward sloping trendline. As long as it holds above this trend, the stock remains supported but a break below could trigger a sharp spike in volatility.