[GTCfx]What You Missed Out On This Week? 19 January - 23 January
Global Economic Snapshot
- US crude inventories rose by 3.6M barrels, well above expectations.
- US PCE inflation came in at 2.8%, slightly hotter than forecast and reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance.
- US Q3 GDP was revised up to 4.4%, confirming strong momentum late last year.
- US jobless claims fell to 200k, pointing to continued labor market resilience.
- US pending home sales dropped 9.3%, a sharp miss highlighting housing affordability pressures.
- UK retail sales surprised to the upside at +0.4%, easing concerns over consumer weakness.
- UK CPI rose to 3.4%, keeping inflation well above target.
- Eurozone final CPI held at 1.9%, supporting the view that inflation is under control.
- Bank of Japan left rates unchanged at 0.75%, signaling no rush to tighten further.
- Australia’s unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, beating expectations and showing continued labor market strength.
Trump Drops Greenland Tariffs, Signals Broader Strategic Deal
President Trump confirmed that planned tariffs linked to Greenland have been cancelled, citing progress toward a future agreement. The framework reportedly includes limited land access, US involvement in mineral rights, defense cooperation, and infrastructure investment. The deal is described as open-ended and aimed at countering Russian influence, effectively combining security, resources, and geopolitics into one package.
Trump in Davos
Speaking in Davos, Trump reiterated that no country other than the US can secure Greenland. His comments ranged across energy, trade, defense, and NATO, with particularly sharp language toward Europe and Denmark. While he said he does not want to use force, he warned that refusal to negotiate would have consequences. Markets largely viewed the remarks as adding political noise but raising longer-term geopolitical risk.
Lagarde: A New World Order Is Taking Shape
ECB President Christine Lagarde said the global economic and political landscape is shifting, describing current developments as the beginning of a new world order. She acknowledged unusual behavior from the US as an ally but stressed that eurozone inflation is under control and monetary policy is well positioned. Lagarde added that tariffs would only have a limited inflation impact, though Germany would be more exposed than France.
RBNZ Reaffirms Inflation Commitment
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand reiterated its commitment to bringing inflation back to its 2% target after CPI edged above the upper band. While annual inflation rose to 3.1%, policymakers said core inflation remains within range. The bank struck a watchful but calm tone, noting spare capacity and subdued wage growth should help cool price pressures.
EU Pushes Ukraine Recovery Plan, Focuses on Arctic Security
EU President Ursula von der Leyen said the bloc is close to agreeing on a coordinated recovery framework for Ukraine alongside the US. She also highlighted a stronger focus on Arctic security, including higher defense spending and readiness for potential new tariffs. The message was one of preparedness amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.
Goldman Turns More Bullish on Gold
Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 gold price forecast to $5,400/oz, pointing to stronger private investor demand and sustained central bank buying. The bank said gold is increasingly being treated as a strategic allocation rather than a short-term hedge, reflecting concerns around geopolitics, diversification, and the global policy outlook.
Greenland Tensions Seen as Bigger Risk for the Euro
Barclays warned that escalating tensions over Greenland could pose a larger long-term risk to the euro than to the US dollar. While the dollar weakened initially, strategists said Europe’s export-heavy economies and NATO exposure make the region more vulnerable if trade or alliance relations deteriorate. Germany was flagged as particularly at risk in a tougher trade environment.
Citi Downgrades European Equities
Citi downgraded European stocks to neutral, citing renewed tariff threats and rising political tension between the US and Europe. The move comes after a strong run in European markets, with strategists warning that earnings and sentiment could come under pressure if trade risks escalate.
Market Highlights
- Intel beat Q4 earnings expectations but guided to weaker margins in Q1.
- Netflix topped Q4 estimates but warned that higher content and acquisition costs will weigh near-term margins.
- Australian dollar climbed to a 15-month high on strong domestic data.
- Gold and silver hit fresh record highs amid geopolitical uncertainty.
- US natural gas prices jumped 75% in three days as an Arctic blast swept across the country.
Disclaimer
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